Lessons of Goldilocks - Part 3 - The Early Bird (does not necessarily) Get the Worm!

Written by: Brad Pedersen

In the previous weeks we discussed the importance of the timing of your innovation. We established the idea of Goldilocks Timing, where you need the right idea, at the right time with the right level of execution. We also introduced the idea of the Innovation Adoption Lag, which is the time from when you find your early enthusiast supporters and when your idea crosses the chasm to the mainstream market. If you want to get caught up or to have a refresh then click the link HERE.

In their classic book The 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing, authors Al Reis and Jack Trout helped lay the foundation of what is commonly known as category design. The first law is called the law of leadership, where they explain that it is better to be first than it is to be better. 

To understand the importance of this law consider the following:

• Neil Armstrong was the first person to set foot on the moon.  Who was second?
• The Wright Brothers were the first people to fly an airplane. Who was second?
• Sir Edmond Hillary was the first to summit Everest. Who was second?

Being first has its advantages BUT it is also not a guarantee for securing dominance in the market. The caveat to the law of leadership is the law of the mind. The idea is that it is better to be first in the customer's mind than it is to be first. 

What that means is while being first to market is an important advantage, what is more important is being the earliest option that provides the best value and most memorable experience for the customer.  

For some notable examples of this, consider the following:

• Friendster was amongst the first social networking sites but was later overtaken by MySpace and later Facebook.
• Netscape Navigator was an early web browser that dominated in the mid-1990s but eventually lost out to Internet Explorer and later to Google.
• BlackBerry pioneered the smartphone market in the early 2000s but was eventually overtaken by the iPhone and Androids devices.

It has been said that the path to success is narrow and rocky, whereas the path of destruction is wide and paved. Meaning that these examples of failed brands are a result of not one single thing but a myriad of reasons. There are many ways to fail but only a few ways to succeed of which what is fundamentally important is to ensure you win the law of the mind.

Being the first in a new product category is exciting and has the possibility of being very rewarding. It is also a little terrifying; or as I have described it: "terriciting.” There is always uncertainty around the timing of the product launch and your target audience recognizing the value proposition.  It is even more uncertain if you will be able to cross the chasm into the mainstream market and become the category leader..

This is exactly what we have experienced over the past couple years with the launch of Lomi, creating the exciting new category of smart waste devices. The macro trends driving the category's emergence are the global movement to have food waste redirected from landfills and a shift towards more compostable products. There is also a broadening awareness of the harmful GHG emissions caused by anaerobic decomposition and the strain on landfill infrastructure, that is a result of our current practices. 

Lomi is an incredible tech innovation and an elegant in-home solution that addresses organic waste. With the press of a button, it takes what is disgusting and turns it into something delightful, converting gross food waste into a nutrient rich soil supplement. Furthermore it is the first consumer appliance that generates carbon credits. Not only is Lomi good for your home and your yard but also a real solution for helping address climate change.

The challenges we have faced with introducing Lomi is in educating and demonstrating how this small behavior shift will improve people’s lives. So far we are over 200,000 strong but it is early days and we still have a long way to go. 

Our indicators suggest that Lomi has been launched with Goldilocks Timing. We are now experiencing the innovation adoption lag as for many people, it is still a novelty and not yet a necessity. However we continue to focus on delivering the best customer experience and by working with our active community of Lomi Legends (who are raving fans helping evangelize the movement) we are on the path to cross the chasm. 

For us, it is not a question of if Smart Waste devices will be a part of the future; it is only a question of when.

As part of your venture, if you have decided to take on the “terriciting” quest of creating a new category with the launch of a new and different innovation; stop, reflect, and ask yourself the following questions:

1. What insights do you have to believe that your timing is right?
2. In the category are you positioned to not only be the pioneer but also the settler?  
3. Do you have the will and resources to nurture and support your launch if you are too early?

Innovation and category creation are an important part of how we advance ourselves as entrepreneurs while improving the lives of others. However as you consider your launch, assess the market and determine if you have Goldilocks Timing, while acknowledging that every innovation has an adoption lag.

“We almost never see a qualified founder fail because they were too late to market. It’s almost always because they’re too early to market. And I don’t say that critically. When we screw up investments, I think that’s often the reason as well.”

 - Marc Andreessen 

Brad Pedersen

Vijay Krishnan

Andre Oliveira

P.S. Have you ever experienced being the pioneer of a new category only to have a better capitalized company come in to take advantage of your insights and become the settler? I would love to hear from you and learn from your insights.

P.P.S. When you are ready there are three ways you can access more of our teachings:

Visit our website for blogs, quick videos and key teachings. Click HERE to access.

Read the book Start Up Santa and discover non-obvious business lessons revealed by timeless toys. You can get it HERE (CA) or HERE (US).

Register to be considered as part of our upcoming Full Spectrum Program. You can sign-up for the wait list HERE.