Lessons of Goldilocks (part 1)
Written by: Brad Pedersen
As a founder have you ever had an idea that just was mistimed?
You see a void in the market, you assess it for possibilities and discover that there is a blue ocean of potential.
In some cases you do some research only to find out that somebody else has already beaten you to the punch. However, it may be just as true that the idea is before its time.
The most important factor to determining the success of your idea is ensuring that you time it right.
The right idea with timing and initiative is my best definition of luck.
Luck = Right Idea + Right Timing
Whereas a successful launch = Luck + Right Smarts + Right Initiative
I have come to learn that the right idea at the wrong time is actually the wrong idea unless you have the patience, persistence and the balance sheet to go the distance. The timing of your product idea will matter for a number of reasons: the market might not be ready yet, the tech is still too expensive or the technology might have not caught up (even the greats get this wrong, just ask Apple about the Newton). The real trick is identifying a market and knowing when there is a convergence of macro factors to make your innovation both desirable and accessible to your target audience. I refer to this as Goldilocks Timing. Not too early; not too late but launching at exactly the right time, when the market is truly ready.
In my book StartUp Santa, I tell the story of how we attempted to enter the construction toy category with a new innovation. Lego was the dominant player in traditional construction, so we differentiated by creating the world's first light up construction set. We called it Atomic Blox and we boldly launched it with a large marketing campaign.
It started off strong as we attracted some early adopters and enthusiasts. However over the ensuing months, despite the investment in product, packaging and marketing, we failed to garner the mass market appeal required to justify shelf placement. As a result we ended up shuttering the brand. Atomic Blox became just another failed product launch, an unfortunately common outcome in the fast paced and low patience world of playthings.
A few years later the overall construction category started experiencing hyper growth. This was largely driven by new licensing and innovation introduced by Lego. It was at this time that we started to notice new products showing up on shelves, one of which was a brand called Laser Pegs. They were light-up building blocks proudly proclaiming themselves as the “original light up construction toy.” Their claim of origination was not true, however they had developed a beautiful product that was well packaged AND more importantly timed when the overall category was expanding. With that “luck” they were able to secure important shelf space and, to our chagrin, became a best selling product.
So what went wrong?
With Atomic Blox, we had the right idea with the wrong timing. Furthermore we lacked the willingness and patience to work alongside our early adopters to foster relationships, using their enthusiasm to help expand our base of fans.
Hindsight is always 20/20, however knowing what we know today, we should have either moved out our product launch to when we saw the category growing, or continued to build and invest into the community until the timing was right.
To better understand the importance of timing, consider two different product launches by Apple.
The Apple Newton, introduced in 1993, is an example of an innovation that was ahead of its time. The device was expensive, had poor battery life and from a technological perspective, the Newton's handwriting recognition technology was immature, leading to frequent errors and frustrating users. Most importantly, customers did not know they had a need for the device as they had no existing behavior that would require use of a personal digital assistant (PDA). The concept was new, mobile computing was nascent and people did not see how it would improve their lives. As a result the Apple Newton failed to gain traction and it would take another 17 years until the market would be ready for the introduction to PDA’s after the proliferation of smartphones and laptops.
In contrast, the iPhone was launched in 2007 at which time there was the right level of technological readiness from advances in processors, touch screens and mobile internet capacity. However more importantly the mainstream market was ready as people were already readily using mobile phones but there was growing demand for a device that could combine phone capabilities with internet browsing, music, and other functions. As we now know, the iPhone was quickly and widely adopted, revolutionizing the smartphone industry and setting new standards for mobile devices. The iPhone had Goldilocks Timing.
Having said that, there are other factors in a successful product launch to consider. Next week as part of better understanding Goldilocks Timing, we will discuss the key factors required to ensure that the potential of your innovation can be maximized. In the meantime as you think about the introduction of your new initiative, reflect on the following questions:
- What needs to be true for your innovation to develop the appeal of your target market?
- Will you be first in this new category and if so how will you ensure you are also first in the customers mind?
- Are there macro trends providing directionally correct support?
P.S. Have you ever launched a new innovation where your timing was off? What did you learn and what are your best practices on knowing if you have achieved Goldilocks timing? I would love to hear from you and learn from your insights.
